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| Good decisions require a solid foundation. |
Hello followers!
Welcome back to the Educated Leadership blog for another nine weeks of growth
and learning. We will be focusing on improving our decision making skills
during this term.
As part of our
reading, we are looking at the ways some researchers utilize formulas to
improve their chances of making a successful decision. As noted early in
chapter three of our text, “As decision makers we are prone to be overconfident
in our occasional successes and overgeneralize the degree to which good
intuitive solutions to some dynamic problems also offer good solutions to other
problems.” Hoch, Kunreuther, & Gunther (2001, p. 39)
To counteract that
overconfidence, defining measures and converting them into formulas can be
employed as a way to quantify results. Assumptions must be made and documented
so all involved understand the basis for the math.
Richard Bellman of
RAND Laboratories is credited with proposing this tool for improving decision
making and calling it dynamic programming. (2001) The learning point here is
that dynamic programming is a tool, not a solution, to make better decisions.
Given that background,
I know that I utilize some tools to attempt to maximize the chances that my
decisions will result in positive consequences. Depending on the complexity,
familiarity, and perceived level of seriousness, the amount of research I do
will increase or decrease.
There are times when I
utilize what could be considered a formulaic resolution process. As I ponder my
managerial and personal decisions of the last few weeks, the times formulas come
into play seem to be in situations regarding decisions involving numerical
requirements. Head count projections which lead to hiring and lay-off decisions
as well as financial issues at both home and work are the easiest examples.
Taking that a step further,
I know I am methodical in making decisions that impact perceptions or feelings
of those around me. I tend to play “what
if” scenarios and try to predict the ways people will react to a particular
decision. The data I use is often that which I have collected over time, but
some comes via reading and classes I have taken regarding human interaction.
All of that is
compiled into something resembling intuition and I make the best decision I can
with the information I have.
The time allowed to
make a decision is such an important factor. Emergent situations require that
we make decisions sometimes solely based upon experience and intuition. Many
times, the best we can hope for in those situations is that our decision buys
us some time to gather a quantity of unambiguous data that we can then
alleviate the situation further or, hopefully, completely. It has been my
experience that true emergent situations occur rarely. Taking a moment to pause
and reflect has been a hard learned but useful tool.
Part of my personal maturation
in decision making has been my level of comfort with not rushing to a decision.
When I mentor new managers at my company I make a point of talking with them
about this subject. The times I have “jumped the gun” and actually created more
work for myself or others stand as reminders for me. It is good reinforcement
for me when I now see others reaping the ill-benefits of making a decision without
a more developed picture. Talking over situations like this with other managers
allows us to share perspectives and build knowledge to use later.
I have been lucky to
get the opportunity to experience a couple of decision making games that I
would recommend. Both do a great job of illustrating the ways that attempting
to apply formulas to predict outcomes is only as good as the information
entered.
One is a game used in
teaching Systems Thinking skills and it is called “The Beer Game.” Senge (1990) The necessity of good information and clear
communication are blatantly demonstrated as one attempts to keep cases of beer ordered
and moving on to retail stores. If you ever get the chance, play.
The second game is called
“Gold of the Desert Kings”. (Eagle'sFlight) Again, one is provided with partial pieces of
information and the tendency for the human mind to fill in gaps with data,
whether it is correct or not, is deftly demonstrated. I highly recommend the
experience.
I am privileged to
have had the chance to receive the training I have experienced. However,
without exercise and application, the skills atrophy. It must also be said,
that even with all the experience and learning I have done, there are
situations each week that I face that provide stress and the need to exercise
patience and decisiveness. Interaction with people is always dynamic, be they
friend or foe.
Since reading this
week’s assignment, I have spent time considering my decision style. My environment
and responsibility level require that I exercise diligence and some type of
predictive skills when making decisions. Consideration of how my decisions will
impact coworkers, bottom lines, customers, and the company are just part of what
I have to do. To assist in that, company processes attempt to add a level of repeat-ability
to everyday situations. With those tools, it is easier to handle the “one-offs”
that pop-up from time to time.
Optimal dynamic
decision making analysis is an excellent target to reach for as a leader. It
takes practice and a willingness to be open to information paths from wherever
one can get the best, not the most, information. Refining the tools used and
the databases we hold as knowledge is an ever ongoing process for me.
A word of caution: be
aware of the pitfall known as “paralysis by analysis.” It is possible to
overthink a situation. It is possible to use the need for “just a little more
information” to put off making a decision that may be distasteful. When your
head and your “gut” or "intuition” are saying the same thing, it’s time to make
the call.
Eagle'sFlight. Gold Desert Kings - Journey
In Search of Results. Retrieved from http://www.eaglesflight.com/corporate-training/team-building-conference-programs
Hoch, S. J.,
Kunreuther, H. C., & with Gunther, R. E. (2001). Wharton on Making Decisions. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons.
Senge,
P. (1990). The Fifth Discipline: The Art
and Practice of the Learning Organization. New York: Currency Doubleday.
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